U.S. Special Report - The Job Market

Aaron Kolkman
Oct 13
2 min read

"Bondservants, obey in everything those who are your earthly masters,not by way of eye-service, as

people-pleasers, but with sincerity of heart, fearing

the Lord. Whatever you do, work heartily, as for the Lord and not for men, knowing that from the Lord you will receive the inheritance as your reward. You are serving the Lord Christ." - Colossians 3:22-24 (ESV)

The U.S. job market is slowing, but resilient. Non-farm payrolls (additions or subtractions to jobs available in the marketplace) - a coincident indicator - has decreased in recent years. The unemployment rate - another coincident indicstor - stands at 4.3%. Thankfully, initial jobless claims - a leading indicator - are at relative lows. Combining these points, we can see that the U.S. has increasingly remained at full employment, that is, a 4-6% unemployment rate.

An Oxford Economics study predicted that if 40% of laid-off federal workers become unemployed, the national unemployment rate could rise by 0.04%. Compared to the overall U.S. labor market, the number of federal employees is relatively small, which minimizes the national effect. However, a potential .04% increase does grab the attention of economists and market watchers alike.

So the labor market is showing resilience. The U.S. Economy continues to grow jobs, albiet at a slower pace than the last few years (post-COVID). So we see strength as the U.S. continues to contribute approximately one quarter of the world's economic output, housing just 4% of the world's population (2.6-2.7% of which are employed or looking for work).

What will you do? How will this information help this week, as you seek to you Be Wise and Decide Well?

Aaron & Crew